ST. LOUIS – In a season that has reached some historic lows, and nearly a week after the front office hinted at change, the St. Louis Cardinals might just be turning a corner.

The Cardinals won their fourth consecutive game Tuesday on a thrilling walk-off home run from Nolan Arenado, matching their season-best winning streak and giving them victories in seven of their last nine.

St. Louis now holds a 42-53 record and stands 10 games back of the National League Central lead, their closest path to a postseason. That doesn’t fully inspire confidence of a turnaround, but it’s a step forward from a season-worst 12.5 games back on July 5. History tells, the Cardinals have rallied back from similar deficits deeper in the season (at least twice) to eventually win a World Series.

The recent momentum puts the Cardinals in an interesting position. President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak recently told FOX 2’s Martin Kilcoyne that the Cardinals would trade players and start shaping the roster for the 2024, though also noted “we’re not necessarily waving the white flag” on the 2023 season after some prolonged first-half struggles.

Several players, including veterans Nolan Arenado and Miles Mikolas, say the 2023 season is not entirely lost, despite the first-half setbacks.

“We’re still far behind right now, but we got to go out and compete, still got to set the example and find a way,” said Arenado via Bally Sports Midwest. “However you got to do it, you got to do it. You got to go out and compete as best as you can.”

“It almost serves as motivation,” said Mikolas via Bally Sports Midwest. “If we can win like 10 or 12 games in a row here, maybe we won’t have to say goodbye to some of our good friends.”

As for Mikolas’ comments, the Cardinals have some key decisions to make ahead of the Aug. 1 trade deadline, now less than two weeks away. Does the team have enough time to salvage this season, in which case St. Louis might stay pat or make small additions? Or will fate lead the Cardinals to moving some impending free agents, like Jack Flaherty or Jordan Montgomery, for future assets?

The Cardinals play 12 more games in as many days before the trade deadline, including eight against a division rival they could leapfrog in the Chicago Cubs. Given their situation, it’s very possible Mozeliak will need all 12 to evaluate the team’s course for this year and beyond.

Closing out July with a large stack of wins, especially if it helps the Cardinals gain ground in the division or wild card standings, could prompt the team to hold back from acting purely as sellers at the deadline. Despite national speculation, the team also doesn’t plan to move last year’s MVP candidates Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, which could help the cause of salvaging this season.

Are the 2023 St. Louis Cardinals still contenders? It depends on who you ask and how much they feel their history aligns with this year’s team, but hope still seems a bit slim. Entering Wednesday…

FanGraphs gives the Cardinals a 10.7% chance to make postseason and a 0.6% to win the World Series.

Baseball Reference gives the Cardinals a 1.5% chance to make postseason and a 0.1% chance to win the World Series.

Around 40% of people responding to FOX 2’s Twitter poll Wednesday believe the Cardinals still have a chance to salvage a postseason spot.

One thing that’s for certain, the Cardinals will need an improbable stretch of wins to push for postseason. In a previous edition of Cardinals math, we looked at what it would take record-wise in scenarios of outpacing the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers, winning out the final NL wild card spot, matching recent Cardinals history and squeezing out a division at a bare minmum of .500.

Several weeks later, after a mixed bag of crushing losses and bounce back wins, this is where the Cardinals stand in all of those paths…

The Brewers are currently pacing for an 89-73 season. In this case, to win the NL Central in theory, the Cardinals would need to finish no worse than 48-19 in their next 67 games (.716 winning percentage).

The Philadelphia Phillies, currently holding the last NL Wild Card spot, are currently on pace for a 90-72 season. In this case, to make postseason via a Wild Card, the Cardinals would need to finish no worse than 49-18 in their next 67 games (.731 winning percentage).

The Cardinals have won at least 90 games in each of their last six full-season postseason runs. In this case, to match that standard and qualify in theory, the Cardinals would need to finish at basically the same clip as they would as the one to pass Philadelphia or Milwaukee.

As recently as Memorial Day, none of the NL Central teams held a record better than two games over .500. And though this would require an unprecedented struggle from the Milwaukee Brewers or nextdoor Cincinnati Reds, it is perhaps a path. In this case, with a .500 record in theory, the Cardinals would need to finish no worse than 39-28 in their next 67 games (.582 winning percentage) to take the division on an absolute bare minimum.

The Cardinals conclude a six-game homestand Wednesday against the Miami Marlins, followed by four road games against the Chicago Cubs, three road games against the Arizona Diamondbacks, then four more home games against the Cubs before the trade deadline.

Buckle up for a big stretch, perhaps the most important one to determine if this year’s Cardinals are contenders or not.