ST. LOUIS – Nearing the halfway point of the season, the St. Louis Cardinals are in a pivotal spot where the team will soon need to decide if they’re contenders or pretenders for the 2023 season.
After hosting two games in London, the Cardinals return home to Busch Stadium behind a 32-45 record. They’re 8.5 games back of the closest path to postseason (the NL Central title) and some models are giving them only a 3% chance to make the big dance this year.
It’s an unfamiliar spot for a Cardinals team with just one losing season in the 21st century. President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak told media members as recently as last week. “I would hope the Cardinals are not allowed to rebuild” amid the prolonged struggles. He added, “We still don’t know exactly which path we’ll walk” ahead of the trade deadline.
A column published Tuesday on The Athletic by MLB Insider Ken Rosenthal doesn’t visibly suggest the Cardinals should embark on a rebuild, though states the team should “consider bold action.”
The article starts with the remark, “Splurge in free agency. Or tear it down.” Rosenthal explains a brief history of trends that have led to regression, thus might support the need for a roster shakeup. Among them, Rosenthal says:
The Cardinals ranked seventh in payroll as recently as 2019, though sit in the middle of the pack for 2023.
Some risky free agent investments in recent history (Dexter Fowler, Mike Leake and Brett Cecil) have not worked for the Cardinals as planned, likely shaping the team’s approach to bring new talent in recent years.
The Cardinals have rarely invested spent top-dollar on big-name free agent signings under Mozeliak.
As spending has accelerated league-wide under a new collective bargaining agreement, the Cardinals have not kept pace.
St. Louis has also missed on a chance to unload some depth for top trade targets last offseason, like Pablo Lopez and Sean Murphy.
All of these points and more are reasons Rosenthal says the Cardinals should contemplate bold action before the trade deadline, not just for this season, but long-term.
Rosenthal hints at two large-scale possibilities. He suggests that making reigning MVP Paul Goldschmidt available now, for two pennant runs, could yield a dynamic return of young talent before he potentially hits free agency in 2024. Rosenthal also says that third baseman Nolan Arenado “might be willing” to waive his no-trade clause and also offer a large return to the Cardinals.
Trading either of last year’s MVP candidates would be extreme. Arenado’s seems unlikely after twice opting in to his remaining long-term contract. Goldschmidt would ultimately need to be approve a scenario in any potential move given his MLB 10-5 rights.
What else could “bold action” look like? These weren’t necessarily points mentioned by Rosenthal, but keep some of these roster considerations in mind:
The starting rotation is still shaky and Miles Mikolas is the only lock beyond the 2023 season. Would the Cardinals consider moving one or both of pending free agents Jack Flaherty or Jordan Montgomery? Or maybe adding a pitcher who could develop into a long-term rotation option?
Primary middle infielders Paul DeJong, Brendan Donovan and Tommy Edman all play similar roles for the Cardinals as standout prospect Masyn Winn. Would it make sense to move at least one in short-term to avoid a potential log jam?
Tyler O’Neill has been subject to trade buzz since last offseason, and his role seems a bit unclear after his latest injury and some comments from manager Oli Marmol earlier this season. Is the 27-year-old outfielder a piece to build around?
The MLB Trade deadline is set for Tuesday, August 1. The Cardinals have 30 more games on schedule prior to then, including 13 in as many days leading up to the MLB All-Star Break.